The more details come out about the four bombs that went of in London yesterday (and the two that didn't), the more it sounds like we are dealing with terrorists with a minimum of training. 1/3 of the known bombs failed to detonate, of those 40%, or 3 of 5, failed to detonate in the Underground (subway) attacks. One may have even killed one or more terrorists in a premature detonation.

The attacks were not nearly simultaneous as many claimed in the confusion of yesterday's horrific events, with an ABC News article saying the Underground attacks were spaced out over 18 minutes. This seems an excessively long period of time if the intention of the attacks was to kill and maim as many as possible. Perhaps they were confident that even with the delay between explosions that people would not have been able to evacuate the subways in time, but I find it more plausible, due to the fact that two bombs failed to detonate at all, that their timing devices were crude and imprecise.

The crudeness of the timers seems more likely if this story reported by the New York Times is true, that the fourth device, the one that blew up the bus, apparently blew up prematurely while in route to its primary target.

If this story of a premature detonation turns out to be true—and we're talking about a New York Times story instead of a blog entry, so there is room for doubt—then there is a strong possibility that the bomber and any accomplices traveling with him may have been among those killed in the blast.

If one or more bombers were on the bus when it exploded, DNA and forensic evidence recovered from the crime scene may be well on the way to identifying the bombers, and by association, the cell which carried out the attack. I do not know how fast DNA matching and forensic science takes to work, but I'd be willing to bet that once Scotland Yard has a lead, that it will take very little time to make arrests for these attacks.

Justice will be served.

UPDATE: According to CNN a potential bomber may have indeed been killed in the blast:

A passenger who survived the bus blast said he saw an "extremely agitated" man rummaging in a bag just seconds before the explosion, the UK's Press Association reported.

The bus blast occurred about 30 minutes after the last train explosion. Investigators found fragments of timing devices that may have been used in the three train blasts, but no such fragments have been found in the bus explosion, U.S. law enforcement sources told CNN.

"The cause of the bus explosion right now is problematic. We don't know yet what we're dealing with as the cause there," one law enforcement official told CNN.

This new eyewitness information does not seem to confirm this was a suicide bombing, nor does it rule out the possibility of an accidental detonation. It does, however, seem to show the probability that a terrorist was among the fatalities.

UPDATE: It seems that the terrorists involved in this attack are most likely not Methodists.

Who knew?

Posted by: Confederate Yankee at 08:30 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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Bloomberg news quotes one London fireman as saying that they've discovered five explosive devices in the London subway network. If this is true, and there were in fact seven bombs that went off, it would indicate than nearly half of the devices planted failed to detonate.

There also seems to be a relatively low number of fatalities considering the density of humanity in the areas targeted, and I am forced to think that these were low-grade explosive devices, quite possibly something like blackpowder pipe bombs like those used by American anti-abortion fanatic Eric Robert Rudolph. As horrible and tragic as the deaths and injuries are, the number and severity of wounds doesn't seem to indicate that military grade explosives were used. If Semtex or C4 or other military grade explosives had been used, I would think that the casualties would have been far, far worse.

This has all the earmarks of an unsophisticated homegrown attack. The low-grade materials apparently used, and the fact that so many of the devices failed to work, would seem to indicate a zealous but unsophisticated terrorist plot carried out by a small group with limited access and capability.

I doubt this attack was carried out by al Qaeda infiltrators as were the attacks of September 11. I'd be very surprised if these amateur bomb-builders, when captured, come from anywhere other than England's own “loyal” Muslim immigrant community.

UPDATE: Some are considering this a "typical al-Qaeda" attack. I think al Qaeda has more competent bomb builders than this group, where almost half the bombs reported failed to explode. I certainly think the group behind this attack sympathizes with al Qaeda, but that does not mean they are nearly as technically proficient.

ANOTHER UPDATE: A group calling itself "Secret Group of Al Qaeda's Jihad in Europe" is taking responsibilty for the attacks. Sounds like "wannabes" to me, though murderous wannabes, as the death toll has now surpassed 40 and 300 are reported injured.

A top British terrorism expert says that this looks like an attempt to recreate the Madrid bombings. I'd say that was rather obvious.

Michael Clarke, director of the Centre for Defence Studies at King's College London, says that for the six bombs he thought there were at the time, that there would have to be 24 suspects to carry out the attacks. So using that ratio of four attacker per bomb, was there a cell of 48 terrorists operating here if there were indeed 12 bombs (seven detonated, five non-detonated)?

I'm sorry Mr Clarke, but I'm not buying your numbers. I see no reason why it would take 24 men to plant six bombs (and yes, that includes support roles)

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Wretchard and a few others have said that they feel that this attack is quite sophisticated due to the near-simultaneous nature of the attacks. Again, like Michael Clarke's “large cell” theory of a large number of bombers, I simply don't buy it.

It is far too easy to rig time-type detonators to go of simultaneously or nearly so, and for cell phone type detonators commonly used in Iraq and I believe in the Madrid bombing, one terrorist merely has to run through a speed dial to set off a series of explosions.

I am not a terror expert, nor do I play one on television, but those that do play expert seem to be prone towards giving complex explanations rather than simple ones. If you listen to the “experts” today, you will probably here that a composite view that this was a very sophisticated attack carried out by a well-trained and well-armed terrorist cell with excellent counter security to avoid detection.

Once all is said and done, however, I would find it far more likely that the attack will be traced back to no more than a dozen legal Muslim immigrants operating out of a fundamentalist London mosque.

They will simply know from living there when the morning rush hour was (that takes brilliant surveillance? Hardly), and we'll probably find that they were able to find pipe-bomb building instructions on the Internet. The only difficult part of this plan was obtaining explosives, and I'll be willing to bet that they explosives used were purchased legally or cooked up by the terrorists themselves.

Time may very well prove that these were indeed complex operations. It is undoubtedly good for the psyche to believe these kinds of attacks are difficult to pull off. But they don't have to be.

Terrorism need not be sophisticated, and it rarely is.

FURTHER UPDATE: The number of blasts has been revised down to three subway attacks and one bus attack. Trains were hit between stations, and as passengers exited from stations on either side it made it look like there were attacks than there actually were.

ABC News has confirmed that two unexploded bombs and parts of the timing devices from the bombs that detonated have been recovered.

This is down from the original claim carried by Bloomberg that five bombs had been recovered, and shows that at least 1/3 of the bombs used failed to work.

Does this prove my earlier contention that this was the work of al Qaeda "wannabes" and not experienced terrorists? Perhaps not, but the fact that bombs were recovered quickly and intact should help British authorities to narrow down a list of suspects rather quickly. Once they make arrests--and I have every confidence that they will--we'll see for certain who is behind these attacks.

Until then, my prayers and support are firmly with the British people.

Posted by: Confederate Yankee at 08:52 AM | Comments (8) | Add Comment
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