January 24, 2008
The Republican race is coming into focus. Well, sort of. If John McCain can win the Florida primary on January 29, he'll be the clear front-runner heading into Super Tuesday a week later.But Florida is hardly a sure thing for McCain. Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney are contesting the state heartily. Plus, Florida is a closed primary, meaning Independents can't participate -- and McCain polls far worse in contests where only Republicans can vote.
If McCain loses in Florida, the Republicans may well be headed to a deadlocked race and convention. And history teaches us that the likeliest candidate to emerge in that scenario is someone like Warren G. Harding: the prototypical, less-than-stellar candidate to which conventions turn when the going gets rough.
This year's Harding? Believe it or not (are you sitting down?), despite the fact that he's withdrawn from the race, is Fred Thompson.
Stark does make an interesting point about the Florida race—McCain and Romney are presently in a virtual dead heat at 22-percent of the vote— and if Florida tips for Romney, it would seem to blunt McCain's momentum running into Super Tuesday and just about anything could be possible. If Super Tuesday does not result in a clear winner, Republicans could indeed end up with a brokered convention where Thompson's lack of negatives may very well turn into a positive.
Is the brokered convention scenario likely to happen?
I wouldn't plan on it, but for Fredheads, it is nice to dream.
Posted by: Confederate Yankee at
11:30 AM
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